Over 50% of sea turtle habitats are expected to disappear by 2050 due to climate change

30x30 Target: A Global Conservation Goal

• The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework sets a target to protect 30% of land and marine areas by 2030. In the marine context, this is referred to as the 30x30 goal. However, despite growing efforts:

• Only 8% of the world’s oceans are designated as Marine Protected Areas (MPAs).

• Of that, only 3% are effectively managed, meaning they have enforcement, monitoring, and actual ecological impact.

Sea Turtles and Inadequate Protection

• A recent study published in Science Advances (June 25, 2025) highlights serious gaps in marine protection:

• Only 23% of global sea turtle hotspots fall within current MPAs. This means the majority of vital habitats for turtles are outside protected zones, leaving them exposed to various threats.

Climate Change and Habitat Shifts

• The study shows that climate change is driving sea turtles toward cooler waters, away from their traditional tropical and subtropical habitats. As ocean temperatures rise:

• Turtles migrate to non-protected and busier areas like the North Sea, East China Sea, Mediterranean, and near the Galápagos Islands.

• These areas are heavily trafficked by ships, making turtles vulnerable to vessel strikes, which are a leading cause of sea turtle mortality.

Future Risks: Shipping and Habitat Loss

• The situation is projected to worsen because Global shipping traffic is expected to increase by 1,200% by 2050, dramatically raising the risk of collisions.

• Using climate scenarios (SSPs) developed by the IPCC:

• SSP1-2.6: Strong climate action.

• SSP2-4.5: Moderate action.

• SSP5-8.5: High emissions, worst-case scenario.

• The study found that even under the best-case scenario, over 50% of current turtle habitats could vanish by mid- century.

• In the worst-case, species like the loggerhead (Caretta caretta) and leatherback (Dermochelys coriacea) could lose up to 67% of their habitat.

Real-Time, Adaptive Conservation: A Way

Forward

• The researchers advocate moving beyond static MPAs. Fixed boundaries are not enough in a changing climate. They propose:

• Dynamic MPAs that change location and size over time based on real-time data about species movements and ocean conditions.

• Coupling MPAs with shipping regulations like vessel speed limits in high-risk zones.

They reference successful models:

• WhaleWatch (USA): Uses satellite data to inform ship operators of whale presence.

• Blue Whales and Blue Skies (California): Voluntary programme where ships reduce speed to avoid whale strikes, earning incentives at ports in Los Angeles, Oakland, and Vancouver.

Policy Recommendations

• To meet the 30x30 goal while truly protecting sea turtles and other migratory marine species, the study recommends:

• Expanding MPA coverage into future climate-predicted turtle habitats, especially within Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs).

• Designing flexible, climate-responsive MPAs.

• Implementing targeted shipping regulations, especially in migration corridors and new turtle habitats.

Sea Turtle Conservation Status

• There are 7 species of sea turtles globally.

• According to the IUCN Red List:

• Critically Endangered: Hawksbill, Kemp’s Ridley

• Endangered: Green Turtle

• Vulnerable: Leatherback, Loggerhead, Olive Ridley

• Data Deficient: Flatback Turtle

• Main threats: Climate change, fishing bycatch, ship strikes, plastic pollution, habitat loss, and illegal trade.